A previous blog post documented the explosive growth of the East Troublesome Fire during the day of Oct 21 through the late evening. The fire had spread east to near the Continental Divide, west of Rocky Mountain National Park (RMNP), slowing by late that night.

During the morning of 22 Oct, NWS BOU forecasters monitoring the wildfire hot spot in GOES-East imagery noted an eastward movement of the far eastern portion of the fire, northeast of Grand Lake and west of Estes Park, possibly across the Continental Divide (Fig 1).

An image captured by BOU forecasters shows the Fire Radiative Power product in relation to the most recent burn scar shapefile and other local geographic features and towns (Fig 2). Accounting for the surface parallax (from GOES-East, surface features are displaced to the north and west at this location/elevation by several km), fire associated with the easternmost hot spot would actually be situated to the southeast, just east of the Divide and west of Bear Lake in RMNP.

Accounting for surface parallax, BOU believed that the hot spot may have advanced east across the Continental Divide during this period. Based on this development as diagnosed in GOES-East imagery, BOU forecasters alerted (via phone call) RMNP dispatch (and Laminar County) to the possibility that the fire had pushed east across the Divide into western RMNP. They were unaware of fire growth into the park at the time, and would go on to call out fire partners to investigate. Although it took a while to get confirmation, it would be confirmed that the fire had indeed crossed over the Continental Divide.

A cold front would soon push west into the I-25 corridor and eventually to Estes Park, dropping temperatures and raising humidity’s with a light east wind. The moist stable layer may have made it west up to the fire, putting a damper on fire behavior. GOES Natural Color Fire imagery from the early afternoon showed low stratus draped across the eastern Colorado plains, while the wildfire continued to burn hot west of the Divide in the presence of still dry and windy conditions (Fig 3). Also diagnosed in the imagery was a thick smoke plume with pyrocu spreading well east over the stratus deck. The smoke plume masked the hot spot in RMNP for the rest of the afternoon/evening.

During the evening of the 22nd, the glow associated with the fire in western RMNP could be diagnosed in (terrain corrected) VIIRS Day Night Band imagery (Fig 4).

This is a great example of a forecast office utilizing GOES imagery to provide potentially life saving IDSS to core partners.

Bill Line, NESDIS and CIRA (with input from NWS BOU)

The East Troublesome Fire, in Grand County, Colorado near Grand Lake and west of Rocky Mountain National Park, experienced substantial growth during the afternoon/evening of 21 October 2020. Dry environmental and fuel conditions, along with gusty winds, caused the fire to grow from 19,086 acres to 125,602 acres during the 1-day timeframe per Inciweb (see maps below).

GOES-East imagery captured the rapid growth of the associated hot spot signature. Throughout the event, NWS Boulder shared GOES-East imagery of the fire on social media to help inform the public of it’s evolution as it quickly spread east. A couple examples are shown below.

The East Troublesome Fire, in Grand County, has exploded this afternoon in Fire Imagery. Those in mandatory evacuation areas should evacuate immediately!!! #cowx #cofire #EastTroublesomeFire pic.twitter.com/hgGTtsNg8Q

— NWS Boulder (@NWSBoulder) October 21, 2020

[8:57] #EastTroublesomeFire continues to advance towards Grand Lake. IF YOU LIVE IN THIS AREA, EVACUATE IMMEDIATELY!! Fire has been reported as close as Columbine Lake. #cowx #cofire pic.twitter.com/4p3BgFM9JJ

— NWS Boulder (@NWSBoulder) October 22, 2020

VIIRS imagery from the early afternoon captured the wildfire as it began it’s rapid growth (Fig 1). The Fire Radiative Power product provided a high resolution view of the heat associated the fire, highlighting a particularly active zone over the northeast portion of the fire (which would go on to continue to expand east rapidly). The underlay of VIIRS True Color imagery shows the associated smoke plume with pyrocu developing near the hot spot. This imagery is available online from the JSTAR mapper.

The daytime evolution of the wildfire is shown through the GOES-East Natural Color Fire RGB in Figure 2. The rapid growth of the wildfire hot spot is observed to begin after 2000 UTC, with the large smoke plume extending well east. Ashfall was abundant across downstream locations such as Fort Collins and Loveland. Pyrocumulus clouds were also present with the smoke plume. The large burn scar associated with the Cameron Peak Fire, north of Estes Park, is apparent, along with several other smaller burn scars throughout the scene.

A VIS-IR-SWIR combo animation extending after sunset highlights the development of the smoke plume, including eventual cooling of pyrocu to as cold as -60C after dark (Fig 3).

Long animations of GOES-East SWIR and Fire Temperature RGB show the full evolution of the wildfire hot spot growth on the 21st from Noon through around midnight (Fig 4-5). Steady growth/heating is observed through teh afternoon, before the rapid acceleration east after dark to near the Continental Divide. west of Rocky Mountain National Park.

Similar time periods but zoomed out images provide another perspective of the large growth and massive size of the fire (Fig 6-7).

The fire becomes so hot in areas that the signal in SWIR channel becomes saturated. This is a situation where the Fire Temperature RGB becomes a little more useful for those wishing to monitor fire heating trends the most active/hottest regions of the wildfire. Figure 8 from 0131 UTC compares SWIR with Fire Temperature RGB, exemplifying the power of the RGB to reveal more detailed temperature information after the SWIR channel becomes saturated. While the SWIR saturates, the Fire Temp RGB shows progressively hotter regions from red to yellow to white through it’s inclusion of the 2.2 um and 1.6 um bands, in addition to the SWIR.

GOES-West similarly displayed the evolution of the wildfire through the afternoon/evening (Fig 9).

A couple hours after midnight, SNPP and NOAA-20 VIIRS DNB NCC imagery revealed the glow of the now very large hot spot associated with the East Troublesome Fire, as well as the most active areas (Fig 10). The massive size can be compared with the City of Denver to the east.

Figure 10: 22 Oct 2020 SNPP (top) and NOAA-20 (Bottom) VIIRS DNB NCC. Higher res top, higher res bottom

The VIIRS Fire Radiative Power Product, shown earlier in this post, is also available at night, and shown in Figure 11. Again, the product provides a higher resolution view of the current location of the wildfire, along with the hottest areas.

Bill Line, NESDIS and CIRA

Wildfires remained active across northern Colorado by 20 Oct 2020. The Cameron Peak Fire, west of Fort Collins, had grown to over 200,000 acres, the largest wildfire in Colorado recorded history.

Viewing GOES-East SWIR imagery over northern Colorado during the morning of Oct 20, a hot spot is barely apparent from the Cameron Peak Fire, just west of Fort Collins (Fig 1-2 top). From the SWIR and other channels, one easily finds that this is due to cloud cover. However, the western US has the benefit of overlapping 5-min (CONUS/PACUS) imagery from GOES-East and GOES-West satellites. Upon viewing GOES-West SWIR imagery, a hot spot associated with the Cameron Peak Fire is readily apparent through the morning (Fig 1-2 bottom).

Viewing Natural Color Fire RGB imagery, the quasi-stationary cloud masking the hot spot in GOES-East imagery is obviously situated to the east of the wildfire in GOES-West imagery, allowing for a clear view of the hot spot (Fig 3-4). This is a good visualization of parallax, and how clouds will appear situated at different locations relative to the surface in reality, and between GOES-East and GOES-West.

It is important for forecasters in the west to remember that they have two options for 5-min geostationary imagery, and that there are situations where one may provide additional insight over the other.

Bill Line, NESDIS and CIRA

A shortwave trough brought strong, deep westerly winds to northern Colorado and an afternoon cold front on 14 October 2020. Analysis of GOES-East water vapor imagery reveals the shortwave dropping south through MT/WY and then east into the plains (Fig 1). The gusty winds and low RH along with continued dry fuels meant conditions were favorable for the rapid growth and spread of the Cameron Peak Wildfire, which had been burning for months in the mountains just west of Fort Collins.

The dangerous fire weather conditions did indeed cause the wildfire to grow considerably during the day, becoming the largest wildfire in Colorado recorded history at over 164,000 acres by early on the 15th, from 135,000 acres early on the 14th. The growth can be visualized in the fire information maps from Inciweb (Fig 2a). Evacuation zones expanded east to just west of Horsetooth Reservoir (Fig 2b).

Both GOES-East and GOES-West satellite imagery captured the evolution of the wildfire hot spot and smoke plume throughout the day. Given the satellite viewing angles and resulting forward scattering, GOES-West VIS provided a clearer view of the smoke plume during the morning, with GOES-East VIS the better option during the afternoon (Fig 3). Given the thick plume, both sensors provided adequate detection.

Focusing on GOES-East, 1-min imagery was available over the wildfire during the day. Early morning Natural Color Fire RGB imagery revealed a lenticular cloud stationary over the fire location around sunrise, dissipating into the morning and revealing the large hot spot (Fig 4).

The Natural Color Fire RGB imagery allows one to characterize various aspects of the wildfire given the three components: hot spot (SWIR), smoke plume (VIS), and burn scar (Veggie). While a similar RGB (Day Land Cloud Fires) is available in AWIPS, this particular RGB, which better detects hot spots, is not (though it can be requested). An example scene from this wildfire is annotated in Fig 5.

Later in the day, the wildfire broke containment and spread rapidly to the east. This expansion is shown in a 2.5 hour period of GOES-East 1-min imagery in the Natural Color Fire RGB (Fig 6).

The full daytime evolution of the wildfire in the Natural Color Fire RGB is shown in Figure 7. A similar animation is shown for the Fire Temperature RGB, which can be used to diagnose relative “hot” areas within the broader hot spot of a mature wildfire (Fig 8).

The smoke was present at the surface across Fort Collins from the morning through the early afternoon. However, a surface backdoor cold front pushed west into the I-25 corridor by mid-afternoon, clearing the near-surface smoke and dramatically improving air quality. The smoke plume remained aloft, however, as was shown in Fig 9, confirming the low-level nature of the cold front. IR-Window imagery with a grayscale color table captures the southwest evolution of the cold front and it’s minimal influence on the smoke plume aloft as observed by from satellite.

NOAA-20 VIIRS True Color Imagery and Active Fires Product around 2000 UTC (tail end of rapid spread east) provided a detailed view of both the smoke plume as well as the active fire burn area (Fig 10).

The natural color fire RGB can also be applied to VIIRS imagery (Fig 11). By using I-band imagery, the product becomes much more detailed given the 375 m spatial resolution. In this case, there were three VIIRS images available within a ~1.5 hour period from SNPP and NOAA-20, allowing for an analysis of the fire growth during that period. Note missing hot spot data within the larger hot spot due to band I4 (swir) pixel saturation. Land surface features such as wildfires are much easier to analyze in time in VIIRS imagery since the implementation of Terrain Correction for VIIRS EDR’s.

That evening, NOAA-20 VIIRS Day Night Band captured the glow associated with the Cameron Peak Fire, in addition to that from nearby city lights (Fig 13).

Some photography of the fire smoke plume from Oct 14 follows:

https://twitter.com/Colorado_Drone/status/1316457460169756673

https://twitter.com/NocoKuva/status/1316505218410897409

@nexton9news @9NEWS a time lapse from loveland before we were evacuated #cameronpeakfire #cameronpeak pic.twitter.com/3XjbYUhJRj

— tabatha nuckols (@TabathaNuckols) October 15, 2020

Bill Line, NESDIS/CIRA